CREA's Latest Quarterly Housing Forecast: What It Means for Victoria BC Real Estate

Every quarter, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) releases its housing market forecast, giving Canadians an updated outlook on where the real estate market may be heading.

The latest forecast released in July 2026 paints a picture of a market that is becoming more balanced after several years of dramatic swings. While national headlines often focus on Canada as a whole, buyers and sellers in Victoria, BC should remember that real estate is always local.

Here's what the latest CREA forecast says—and what it really means if you're thinking about buying or selling in Greater Victoria.

What Did CREA Forecast?

CREA has slightly revised its expectations for 2026.

Nationally, CREA now forecasts:

• Approximately 463,000 homes will sell across Canada in 2026, a slight decline of 1.4% compared to 2025.
• The national average home price is expected to increase by about 1.1%, reaching approximately $686,700.
• Home sales are expected to improve again in 2027, with a projected increase of 3.7%, as stable interest rates and improving consumer confidence bring more buyers back into the market.

Rather than predicting another boom or a major correction, CREA expects a market defined by stability and modest growth.

Why National Numbers Don't Tell the Whole Story

One of the biggest mistakes buyers and sellers make is assuming Canada's housing market moves as one.

It doesn't.

Victoria has always had its own market dynamics.

Our city continues to be influenced by:

• Limited land available for new development
• Strong demand driven by lifestyle and retirement buyers
• Desirable neighbourhoods with consistently low turnover
• A stable local economy compared with many other Canadian cities

Because of these factors, Victoria often performs differently than larger markets such as Toronto or Vancouver.

National forecasts provide valuable context—but they shouldn't replace local advice.

What This Means for Buyers in Victoria

For buyers, today's market may offer something many have been waiting for:

Time.

Compared with the frantic pace of the pandemic years, buyers today often have:

• More homes to choose from
• Greater opportunity to negotiate
• Less competition in many price ranges
• More time to complete inspections and financing

While prices are not expected to surge dramatically, CREA also isn't forecasting widespread price declines. Waiting for a significant market crash may simply mean missing good opportunities that exist today.

For many buyers, the right strategy is to purchase the right home rather than trying to perfectly time the market.

What This Means for Sellers

Some sellers see headlines about slower national sales and assume it's a poor time to list.

That isn't necessarily true.

Balanced markets reward sellers who:

• Price accurately
• Prepare their home properly
• Invest in professional marketing
• Work with an experienced REALTOR® who understands buyer behaviour

The days of simply putting a sign on the lawn and expecting multiple offers are largely behind us.

Today's buyers are informed and selective.

Homes that are well-presented continue to attract strong interest.

Interest Rates Continue to Matter

Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest influences on buyer confidence.

CREA expects stable borrowing costs and improving economic conditions to gradually bring more buyers back into the market through 2027.

That doesn't mean every buyer will rush back overnight.

Instead, we're seeing confidence build slowly as people become more comfortable with today's financing environment.

Victoria Remains a Lifestyle Market

Unlike many parts of Canada, people don't move to Victoria solely because of employment.

They move here because they want to live here.

Excellent schools.

Ocean views.

Outdoor recreation.

A mild climate.

Walkable neighbourhoods.

Those lifestyle factors continue to support long-term housing demand regardless of short-term national market fluctuations.

Should You Buy or Sell Based on a Forecast?

Probably not.

Forecasts are useful because they provide direction—not certainty.

No forecast can predict:

• changes in your family's needs,
• a job opportunity,
• retirement,
• interest rate surprises,
• or unexpected economic events.

Real estate decisions should always begin with your personal circumstances, not national headlines.

The best time to buy or sell is when the decision aligns with your financial goals and lifestyle.

Final Thoughts

The latest CREA Quarterly Forecast suggests Canada is entering a period of greater stability rather than dramatic change. That's welcome news for buyers and sellers who have been waiting for calmer market conditions.

Here in Victoria, BC, our market continues to be shaped by local supply, neighbourhood demand, and the lifestyle that attracts people from across Canada.

If you're wondering how these national forecasts apply to your specific home, neighbourhood, or buying plans, I'd be happy to provide advice based on what's actually happening in the Greater Victoria market—not just the national headlines.